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TMCNet: 1Q10 - Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast - 2009-2014

[March 12, 2010]

1Q10 - Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast - 2009-2014

(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Dublin - Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/15ca59/1q10_egypt_mobile) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q10 Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Egypt will have 101 Million Mobile Subscriber Accounts in 2014 with Market Share of Etisalat Rising to 21.2%" to their offering.

1Q10 Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Egypt will have 101 Million Mobile Subscriber Accounts in 2014 with Market Share of Etisalat Rising to 21.2% Mobile Operator Forecast on Egypt provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Egypts wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Egypt include: The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil), Vodafone Group Plc, and Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Executive Summary: Subscriber growth in Egypt's wireless market remains strong - +37.3% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009 ARPUs continue declining in Egypt's mobile operator space - -16.6% industry average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009 Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing - The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +4.2% in 3Q.2009 EBITDA declined at both ECMS and Vodafone in the latest quarter - -3.8% industry-average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009 So what is IEMRs Forecast? Total wireless subscribers in Egypt to reach 101.7 million in 2014 - All of the major operators are offering SIM cards to mobile subscribers in Egypt, and this causes a significant increase in subscriber numbers. We now forecast that total wireless subscribers in Egypt will increase from about 60 million in 2009 to 101.7 million in 2014.

- ECMS (Mobinil) will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Egypt. Our model predicts that ECMS (Mobinil)'s number of subscribers will increase from 25 million in 2009 to 42 million in 2014.

- We also expect that, by the end of 2014, Vodafone will have 37.8 million subscribers and Etisalat will have 21.5 million subscribers.

Vodafone and ECMS (Mobinil) will be losing market shares to Etisalat over the next five years - Our model predicts that Etisalat's subscriber market share will increase from 18% in 2009 to 21.2% in 2014.

- On the other hand, the largest two operators will be losing subscriber market shares over the next several years. We expect that ECMS (Mobinil)'s share will decrease to 41.6% and Vodafone's share will decrease to 37.2% by the end of 2014.

ARPUs in Egypt will be stabilizing from 2010 to 2014 - Our forecasting model predicts that Vodafone's monthly ARPU level will be stable at approximately EGP 45 over the next several years.

- Also, we forecast that ECMS (Mobinil)'s ARPU declines will not be as rapid as in the previous few years. Our model forecasts that ECMS (Mobinil)'s monthly ARPU will be about EGP 35 in 2014 (down from about EGP 40 in 2009).

ECMS (Mobinil) will continue to enjoy higher profitability than Vodafone over the next five years - We forecast that ECMS (Mobinil)'s EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain in the range of 47% - 48% over the next several years.

- On the other hand, we expect that Vodafone's EBITDA margin will be declining over the forecast period to reach 38.7% in 2014.

Companies Mentioned: - ECMS - The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil) - Vodafone Group Plc - Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation) For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/15ca59/1q10_egypt_mobile ((Comments on this story may be sent to info@m2.com)) (c) 2010 M2 COMMUNICATIONS

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