Gartner Report Shows Big Changes Afoot In Electronics Landscape

A recent report from Gartner suggests that there are going to be a lot more electronic devices getting shipped out this year, but the sources of the aggregate number are about to change from the familiar, to the less familiar. Looking at Gartner's recent numbers suggests nothing less than a full sea change in terms of where many users will be turning for communications needs over the next year.

The Gartner report said that, on a combined basis, shipments of PCs, tablets, and mobile phones will add up to a total of 2.4 billion units this year, which is up fully nine percent from 2012. What's more, the Gartner report expects that number to steadily grow for the next three years, reaching a height of 2.9 billion units in 2017. But it's the mix of devices that proves especially noteworthy, as PCs are expected to fall in favor of tablets, smartphones, and ultra-mobile devices.

The PC market - both desktop and notebook alike - is set to take the biggest hit, with units shipped set to drop 7.6 percent over 2013. However, there will be something of a turnaround as ultra-mobiles step in to take some of that demand, looking to grow nearly 10 times over between 2012 and 2017. Ultra-mobiles are set to gain to such a degree that the combined drop of PCs and ultra-mobiles will represent a 3.5 percent drop in 2013, going from 9.8 million units in 2012 to 23.59 million in 2013.

Tablets and mobile phones, perhaps unsurprisingly, are poised for the biggest gains. Tablets, for example, will nearly double from around 116 million units in 2012 to around 197 million units in 2013. By 2017, that number will hit around 468 million, or approaching double the sales of PCs. Mobile phones, meanwhile, will blow all of those numbers out of the water, starting at 1.7 billion units in 2012 and reaching 2.1 billion units in 2017.

Basically, as described by Gartner's research vice president Carolina Milanesi, this is not the response of a market that's feeling an economic pinch and is putting off new purchases. This is the response of a market that's in motion from one way of life to another. Milanesi remarked: "While there will be some individuals who retain both a personal PC and a tablet, especially those who use either or both for work and play, most will be satisfied with the experience they get from a tablet as their main computing device. As consumers shift their time away from their PC to tablets and smartphones, they will no longer see their PC as a device that they need to replace on a regular basis."

This in turn represents some very interesting - or distressing, depending on the point of view - trends to emerge in the future. Naturally, hardware makers are going to have to prepare now - if such hasn't started already - for a future with fewer PCs and more tablets and smartphones. Software makers too will have to start looking at a future largely driven by apps and the cloud, as opposed to the current model. Chipset architecture will come into play, and ISPs everywhere will have to be on guard for a future where users increasingly make for the cloud.

The world of even just 2017 is likely to be a very different world from the one we know now, with changes even larger than can be considered from here. It's also likely to be a more mobile future, so being ready for that will likely prove prudent.