LTE Revenues to Reach $340B by 2017

Juniper Research forecasts Long Term Evolution network subscribers will double from an estimated 105 million subscribers in 2013 to nearly 220 million in 2014.

What that means in terms of incremental revenue is less clear, though many service providers are using the LTE rollout as an opportunity to raise data plan prices. In many markets, 4G data plans will simply cannibalize 3G plans, with some incremental revenue lift if operators are able to charge a 4G pricing premium.

“To some extent, 4G may not impact mobile innovation the way 3G did,” observes Dan Hays, PwC US Wireless Advisory Leader. “We may be more likely to see second order effects from 4G, rather than new things enabled by the technology itself.”

In other words, there might not be as much application innovation as some believe, nor might the revenue lift be as significant as some believe.

“I believe 4G will enable operators to deliver a more consistent experience, more ubiquitously,

at a lower cost and allow them to make money and stay in business,” said Hays. That sounds a bit like the upside from fiber to home networks.

There is some revenue upside, particularly from video entertainment services. But much of the benefit comes from “future proofing” or lower operating and repair costs. Lower costs per bit is one advantage, for example.

Juniper Research forecasts that 4G LTE revenues will reach more than $340 billion by 2017 globally, almost 70 percent of which will be generated by North American and the Far East and China markets.  

4G Americas reports that the number of LTE connections worldwide will pass 100 million in May 2013, with the U.S. and Canada capturing 57 million subscriptions of that global total, growing nearly 50 percent in five months.

There are 172 operators in 70 countries with LTE networks and more than 250 commercial LTE networks are expected by the end of this year.

The group estimates 250 LTE networks will be in operation globally, by the end of 2013, up from about 172 networks active in May 2013.

LTE connections are forecast to reach one billion by early 2018. In North America, there are 22 commercial LTE networks deployed in Canada and the United States, with 38 million LTE connections at the end of 2012.

Juniper Research predicts there are 57 million LTE connections as of May 2013.

In Latin America, there are 20 commercial LTE networks in nine countries, including Antigua & Barbuda, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, Puerto Rico and Uruguay.

Juniper estimates there will be two million LTE connections in service in Latin America by the end of 2013.