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January 29, 2014

Smartphones Will Continue to Be Wildly Popular in Most Markets

Smartphones are clearly now a technology of choice for much of the world. As expected, smartphone shipments were higher in 2013 than in the prior year – given continuing consumer preferences.

There are many reasons for the trend, such as the wide range of prices (including those which are cheaper), ease of use, convenience, diverse features and availability of apps.

According to a new Juniper Research study, there were 980 million smartphones shipped during 2013. That is a 39 percent jump in shipments from the number shipped in 2012, Juniper Research said. About 30 percent of the smartphones were made by Samsung – which totaled to some 300 million phones. That is a 40 percent jump from the number of shipments the company saw in 2012.

And Apple sold a record 51 million iPhones in Q4. That is 51 percent more than in the previous quarter.

Still, Apple lowered its sales outlook for 2014. Similarly, Samsung saw lower shipments and market share in Q4 – to about 81 million.

When it comes to LG, the company saw a new record in Q4 with smartphone sales breaking 13 million, which is 50 percent more than Q4 of the prior year. On the other hand, Nokia saw mixed news. Nokia’s handset sales’ declined by about 30 percent in Q4. But it was reported how 30 million Lumia smartphones were sold in 2013, compared to 13 million sold during 2012. It was reported too how Lenovo, Huawei and ZTE saw higher smartphone market share in 2013 compared to 2012. The three companies shipped over 40 million smartphones during Q4.

Overall, the number of smartphones shipped in Q4 of 2013 was over 280 million.

In reviewing smartphone sales data, Juniper Research says emerging markets are important to the sector’s “continued success.”

“The gap between the growing emerging markets and the stagnating mature markets is what will characterize the smartphone market in the future,” Juniper Research said in a statement. “This means that many markets that will drive future growth will represent a new territory for the major smartphone players, potentially requiring a specialized, more local approach or a local partner with intrinsic knowledge of local socio-economic conditions. Consequently, although these leading smartphone vendors will continue to experience an enlarged market share, it will come at the cost of much lower margins.”

The Juniper study comes shortly after a September 2013 prediction from IDC that the overall mobile phone market globally was to jump 7.3 percent in 2013 compared to 2012. That compares to minimal growth of 1.2 percent in 2012. During 2013, IDC predicted more than 1.8 billion mobile phones were to be shipped. That number is predicted to jump to over 2.3 billion mobile phones in 2017.

In September, IDC had predicted that the global smartphone shipments were expected to be more than 1 billion for 2013, slightly more than the more recent Juniper forecast. The firm credited the predicted growth in smartphone sales to device subsidies from carriers in mature markets and more smartphones selling for $200 or less.  IDC also predicts that smartphone shipments will total 1.7 billion units in 2017.

"The smartphone has gone from being a cutting-edge communications tool to becoming an essential component in the everyday lives of billions of consumers," Ramon Llamas, a research manager at IDC, said in a September statement.

Looking ahead, smartphones will be even more widespread among consumers – especially in more developed economies.

"Smartphones will represent virtually all of the mobile phone market in many of the world's most developed economies by the end of 2017," Kevin Restivo, an IDC research analyst, said in September. "Aggressive carrier subsidies of handsets, falling prices, higher consumer awareness, and a vast array of devices will mean almost all phones shipped to the developed world will be 'smart.' However, smartphone shipment volume will be dominated by emerging markets, such as China, even though the percentage of smartphones to feature phones won’t be as high."

When it comes to operating systems used in smartphones, Llamas predicts Android will be No. 1 and iOS will be No. 2 during the next few years. Windows Phone beat out BlackBerry during the first half of 2013, and “that will extend into the future,” he adds. Microsoft, which acquired Nokia’s device unit, may have to sell more “low-cost smartphones to high-growth emerging markets if it is to continue building on its recent nominal share increases,” IDC adds.

But IDC says Android may see slightly lower market share because of increased competition and maturing markets. “The sheer volume of devices at a wide range of price points combined with Google's backing and a growing application library will keep Android atop the smartphone O.S. heap,” IDC added in the statement.

Apple, on the other hand, was predicted to see increases because of gains in enterprise market share and emerging market share. New partnerships by Apple with China Mobile and Japan’s NTT Docomo will likely increase sales in emerging markets, too, according to a report from Market Realist.

When it comes to BlackBerry, market share will continue to be at risk in regions where it remains somewhat popular, such as Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. IDC predicts BlackBerry sales volume will be flat, given that some organizations still want the operating system for security reasons or specialized needs.




Edited by Ryan Sartor


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