When the Samsung Galaxy S III first appeared it was notably slim, notably large - with a screen size that dwarfs the iPhone 4S, and notably lightweight. It is a notably sleek smartphone. And it runs the latest version of Android 4. When the new Galaxy launched Samsung broke with its old marketing habit of giving each carrier’s version a unique name. That is no longer true – the Samsung is the same Samsung Galaxy X III regardless of carrier – an attempt to maintain stronger brand identity.
One has a feeling of Samsung delivering a “statement” with this device. Without a doubt, it is all of the above, and it does make a statement. But…
The latest survey findings from 451 Research/ChangeWave Research tells a different story. Yes, there is a larger opportunity for Samsung, but the more significant emerging story is the survey’s finding that there is already an unprecedented wave of advance demand for the next generation Apple iPhone. The quarterly ChangeWave survey was conducted across a substantial audience of 4,042 consumers, with most of them based in North America.
The survey compared demand for the latest Samsung Galaxy against future demand for what ChangeWave refers to as the iPhone 5. Though some rumors have begun to surface about the new iPhone design (4” screen, much slimmer design due to a change in the touch technology), and though we’ve already seen what iOS 6 will deliver, we don’t really know for sure what the iPhone 5 will bring – or for that matter if it will be called the iPhone 5.
When asked how likely it was that a respondent would purchase a Samsung phone, 19 percent responded that they would. For Samsung, which had hovered at about five percent last September, the overall jump to 19 percent is substantial.
The recently released Galaxy S III is in large part responsible for the burst of Samsung momentum. That said, when the respondents were specifically asked about the new Galaxy itself, it received a somewhat less enthusiastic response. Only two percent of respondents say that they are very likely to buy a Samsung Galaxy S III and seven percent responded with somewhat likely. The top reason for a probable purchase – which 15 percent of respondents chose –is the phone’s size and the quality of its screen.
Big Numbers For Apple…Again
Next the survey turned its attention to the next generation iPhone 5, which the survey generally described as having a larger screen, an improved camera, 4G/LTE support, and the new iOS v6. The description did not make mention of an overall slimmer iPhone (the description of a slimmer iPhone emerged after the survey was conducted), when asked how likely it was that a respondent would purchase the hypothetical iPhone 5 for oneself or someone such as a family member in the future, 14 percent of consumers responded that they would very likely do so, and 17 percent said they were somewhat likely to purchase the iPhone 5. The numbers here point to advance demand for the next generation iPhone being significantly higher than any earlier iPhone model.
The iPhone 4S, in contrast (through a survey taken at the time of its October 2011 launch) showed 10 percent very likely to buy and 11.5 percent somewhat likely to purchase. Keeping in mind that the iPhone 4S is – despite a variety of complaints at the time of its launch - currently considered the most successful smartphone release in history.
Based on the current survey numbers, demand for the next iPhone already easily dwarfs the advance demand of any previous iPhone launch. The Samsung numbers look weak in comparison, but keeping in mind that Samsung has managed to increase interest in Samsung smartphones almost four fold since last September, the combined demand for both smartphones strongly suggests that we will likely see the largest period of smartphone acquisition of any period in time.
Though all boars rise with a rising tide, not all smartphone manufactures will have the sort of success the survey anticipates for Apple and Samsung. In contrast, demand for Motorola stood at four percent, down two-pts; for HTC numbers stood unchanged at three percent; for Research in Motion, they were a dismal though unchanged two percent. Nokia, meanwhile, saw its key number at two percent – which actually represents a one percent increase.
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Tony Rizzo has spent over 25 years in high tech publishing and joins MobilityTechzone after a stint as Editor in Chief of Mobile Enterprise Magazine, which followed a two year stretch on the mobile vendor side of the world. Tony also spent five years as the Director of Mobile Research for 451 Research. Before his jump into mobility Tony spent a year as a publishing consultant for CMP Media, and served as the Editor in Chief of Internet World, NetGuide and Network Computing. He was the founding Technical Editor of Microsoft Systems Journal.Edited by
Brooke Neuman 
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