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February 11, 2014

Sprint Gains Subs in 4Q 2013, Instead of Losing Them

Sprint’s organic growth, company executives had warned, would not be especially robust for the most recent quarter, as Sprint is turning up its “Sprint Spark” network. But organic growth is likely to be crucial for Sprint if the option of growth by acquiring T-Mobile US is not possible.

In its fourth quarter of 2013, Sprint revenue grew more than five percent, year over year, reaching $28.6 billion. Sprint nevertheless had an operating loss for the quarter.

In the fourth quarter, Sprint also posted its best-ever annual Sprint platform postpaid average revenue per user of $64.07 and reached 53.9 million subscribers, adding a net 682,000 total Sprint platform net additions in the fourth quarter and 58,000 Sprint postpaid net additions, indicating that most of the net additions came from wholesale accounts or prepaid.

In total, Sprint gained 322,000 prepaid subscribers and 302,000 wholesale and affiliate subscribers in the fourth quarter.

If the retail postpaid subscriber gain seems unremarkable, consider that some had predicted Sprint might lose as many as 365,000 subscribers in the quarter, to T-Mobile US, primarily. That does not seem to have happened.

The battle over the next couple of quarters will likely be unpredictable, as it isn’t clear which carriers will be harmed most by T-Mobile US marketing initiatives. AT&T recently unveiled a new “Value Share” plan apparently aimed at retaining and attracting multiple-line accounts (“family plans”).

Though one might argue the plans are a defense against T-Mobile US, others might argue the plan is an assault on Verizon Wireless family plan customers.

For example, Adam Ilkowitz, an equity analyst for Nomura Equity Research, notes that “AT&T is now meeting the T-Mobile price point for service on accounts with multiple lines and 10GB of usage.” That might suggest the target of the new plan is T-Mobile US.

On the other hand, it might also be possible to view the new AT&T “Value Share” plans as a move to draw Verizon Wireless customers. The new plans are more expensive than comparable plans offered by Sprint and T-Mobile US, but offer significant discounts to similar Verizon Wireless pricing.

Citigroup analyst Michael Rollins thinks the Value Share plans will serve a dual function, protecting the important family plan accounts while competitive positioning against both T-Mobile US and Verizon Wireless.

AT&T family plans represent roughly 75 percent of the post pay base, so the plans offer protection against share loss to T-Mobile US, while at the same time perhaps offering a carrot to Verizon Wireless family plan accounts. 




Edited by Cassandra Tucker


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