T-Mobile US Could be Big Winner in 600-MHz Auction

It is starting to look as though T-Mobile US could be the single biggest winner in the 600-MHz auctions, assuming U.S. TV broadcasters can be convinced to sell their spectrum. Sprint might become the biggest loser, while AT&T and Verizon might wind up someplace in the middle.

That prediction relies on just a few assumptions. It assumes the Federal Communications Commission will make a change to its “spectrum screen,” the way the FCC accounts for existing spectrum market share when creating bidding rules.

One also has to assume enough TV broadcasters will give up their spectrum (up to 84 MHz of total new mobile spectrum, perhaps) so that mobile operators will find it possible to win a 10 MHz by 10 MHz (20 MHz total) allocation.

Finally, T-Mobile US could emerge the biggest single winner should other smaller bidders be unable to match the prices T-Mobile US would bid on perhaps 30 MHz of reserved spectrum.

The other decision the FCC almost certainly will make in May, in addition to changing the spectrum screen, would be to formally create rules related to a spectrum reserve of 30 MHz, which AT&T, Verizon and now likely Sprint would not be able to bid on, after a certain point in the auction.

That would potentially position T-Mobile US as the likely winner, or at least a heavily-favored bidder in the larger markets, since its main competitors would not be able to compete against T-Mobile US, though any number of other parties without significant national spectrum assets might bid.

The FCC has not, up to this point, been counting a significant chunk of the former Clearwire spectrum as included within the spectrum screen.

But it appears that at its May meeting, the FCC will count about 101 MHz of former Clearwire spectrum as among the assets that are measured as part of the spectrum screen.

Verizon and AT&T have been arguing that the 2.5-GHz spectrum Sprint acquired as part of the Clearwire acquisition, should count as part of the screen calculations. The Clearwire acquisition added almost 140 MHz of nationwide spectrum to Sprint’s holdings.