Will 2G Outlast 3G?

Sometime around 1981/1982 the world was introduced to 1G system, which refers to the first generation of wireless telephone technology. This first system represented analog telecommunications standards. About ten years later we saw the creation of second generation wireless telephone technology commonly known as 2G. The main difference between 1G and 2G is that the radio signals used by 1G networks are analog, while 2G networks are digital.

It seems that the standard time frame between the next generations of wireless telephone technology is roughly 10 years. The first 3G networks were introduced in 1998. This is based on a set of standards used for mobile devices and mobile telecommunications use services and networks that comply with the International Mobile Telecommunications-2000 (IMT-2000) specifications by the International Telecommunication Union. Wireless voice telephony, mobile Internet access, fixed wireless Internet access, video calls and mobile TV can all take advantage of 3G.

Today we have 4G and LTE networks. In addition to the services already mentioned for 3G, 4G provides mobile broadband Internet access, to smartphones, as well as to other mobile devices. Applications include amended mobile Web access, IP telephony, gaming services, high-definition mobile TV, video conferencing, 3D television and cloud computing.

Since 4G was first introduced in 2008, the major carriers have been slowing cannibalizing, which is refers to as in the industry, re-farming portions of their networks for LTE. Carriers all around the world are deploying LTE networks to all the regions that are feasible. Naturally, that means the re-farming of their 2G and 3G networks.

As wireless carriers try to decide when to close their legacy networks to make way for 4G LTE services, they need to consider the key revenues that they derive from machine-to-machine (M2M), voice and roaming. There are still some factors to take into consideration, for instance according to a report from Ovum, “The amount of 2G, 3G, and LTE spectrum an operator has can also affect timing,”

Ovum principal analyst, Nicole McCormick, states that “Ovum believes that in some markets 3G networks may see closure before 2G ones. 2G is still an important source of revenue. LTE provides a better mobile broadband experience than 3G and with VoLTE, LTE can handle the voice responsibilities of 3G. The majority of operators are not in a position today to close their legacy networks, nor will they be in the next 1–2 years. Rather, operators are deciding how to best manage a transition towards full network closure, given that M2M, voice and roaming revenue cannibalization remains a pertinent issue. We don’t expect networks to be retired en masse until closer to 2020.”

As technologies, such as Voice over LTE (VoLTE) continue to mature, it seems to follow the time line mentioned above. Ten years from the introduction of 4G would place VoLTE taking prominence in 2018, which also falls in line with the 1-2 year period suggested by Ovum.