LTE Subscriptions to Grow at 404 Percent from 2010 to 2014: Report

Days after the United States’ largest wireless operator clarified its ambitious plans for a nationwide long-term evolution network launch, telecom researchers today called for rapid growth for the next several years for LTE, which is vying with WiMAX for dominance in the emerging 4G technology space.

 

Officials at Pyramid Research predict that LTE subscriptions will grow at a rate of 404 percent annually between 2010 and 2014 – a faster pace even than today’s 3G mobile standard, a technology that may quickly go from “next-generation” to ho-hum as smartphones such as the iPhone 3G become commonplace.

 

According to Daniel Locke, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the firm’s report, LTE may signal the first time that a critical mass of both operators and vendors are supporting the same mobile standard.

 

Specifically, Locke said, by using LTE’s more efficient and cost-effective flat IP architecture, mobile operators can transfer the savings to end users in the form of lower prices for access, faster data rates, and higher traffic allowances for a wider adoption of mobile data services.

 

“To date, 27 mobile operators worldwide have publicly committed to deploying LTE, with 12 of them expected to roll out commercial services in 2010 and the remainder during 2011 and 2012,” Locke said.

 

To be fair, much of Locke’s description – lower prices, faster data rates and increased traffic – echoes what advocates of LTE’s main competitor, WiMAX, are touting about their services.

 

Some analysts say WiMAX will displace up to 12 percent of the global DSL installed base by 2013, and we’ve seen in recent weeks how Sprint Nextel and Clearwire Corp. are pushing forward – legal issues aside – with plans to offer high-speed mobile Internet service based on WiMAX technology.

 

Having said that, the month of May has clearly belonged to LTE.

 

Just last week, Verizon Wireless clarified long-speculated plans for its LTE networks launch, saying it would launch its LTE networks commercially in 20 to 30 markets in “the second half of 2010,” with “nationwide buildout complete in late 2013 to early 2014.”

 

Verizon’s build-out likely is behind some of the bold predictions made in Pyramid’s new, 19-page report, “LTE’s Five-Year Global Forecast: Poised to Grow Faster than 3G.”

 

The firm says that while it took nearly six years for UMTS/HSPA to reach 100 million subscriptions, LTE will take just over four years to reach the same milestone.

 

“The number of LTE subscriptions worldwide will grow at a CAGR of 404 percent from 2010 to 2014 and reach 136 million by year-end 2014,” Locke said.

 

As with any next-gen standard, most LTE subscriptions will come, at first, from developed markets, in this case the United States and Japan, according to Locke.

 

“However, LTE will grow 30 percent faster in emerging markets than developed ones,” he said. “Subscriptions in emerging markets will account for 43 percent of the LTE total in 2014, up from 5 percent in 2010.”