A Pragmatic Take on LTE Developments

I didn’t go to MWC 2012: too big, too confusing, and too expensive. Instead, I got most of the information I wanted without leaving home. The info on the network side was clear. In a nutshell, operators want to run as much traffic across this all-IP 4G facility as possible because it’s significantly more efficient than earlier generations, which means that a given slice of spectrum will generate more revenue. NEPs were therefore touting HetNets (Heterogeneous Networks), which will add more capacity by offloading traffic, thereby making the network even more efficient. Do a search on HetNet and you’ll see what outfits like Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia Siemens Networks are doing. 

Developments on the user side are less clear and the information can differ because it comes from the agendas of different parties. LTE was designed for mobile data and there is no doubt that the need for this service is growing in leaps and bounds. LTE wasn’t designed for messages and voice, which is circuit- not packet-switched, but these services are performing well on 2.5 and 3G, so what’s the problem? It’s a grey area.

Operators need to enable SMS to facilitate configuration and to issue roaming cost alerts. That’s not a big issue. However, LTE-compliant smartphones are being marketed, sales will accelerate in 2012 and users will expect to be able to make voice calls over this super-duper network. In the first phase of LTE deployment, they can’t. When they make a call the device will “fall back” to a circuit-switched (CS) network. Live LTE data sessions will either continue at a lower speed or they will be suspended. When the call ends normal service will be resumed.

In order to provide a real Voice over LTE (VoLTE) service, operators will need to deploy IMS, which is a gigantic white elephant. The technology has been around for about a decade, the design goals were very ambitious, and although systems were purchased, the majority stayed in the lab. Implementation was tricky and there was no real market demand for the additional services they would enable. Don’t look for logic in this part of the telecommunications world.    

OK. Those systems are being dusted off and deployed in order to enable VoLTE, not because calls falling back to 3G is such a bad thing, but because operators need to address the challenge that’s coming from OTT players like Skype, which has a multimedia service portfolio that includes presence, privacy, buddy lists, video share, video call, one-to-one messaging, one-to-many messaging, chat, file transfer, geo-location and more. And the only way to do that is to use IMS to implement RCSe/RCS-5, which have similar functionality. 

RCS adds use of the same address book and there will roaming agreements, but that’s about it, and it will be a while before it’s up and running. OTT services will get a cost hit when roaming and there will be interoperability issues, but all they need is an IP connection, e.g. via a Wi-Fi hot spot to employ a multimedia service that is as near free as makes no significant difference. And free text messages services are available, e.g. Apple’s iMessage, so it’s no wonder that carriers expect to lose 20 to 35 percent of their voice and messaging revenues within three years.

The somewhat ironic ending to this take is the fact that operators could have implemented RCS on 3G several years ago and beaten Skype and others to the punch. But to do that they would have had to get IMS up and running.