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October 12, 2012

ChangeWave Research Closes the Door -- Concludes Apple Maps is an Irrelevant Issue as Massive iPhone 5 Buying Continues

One of our favorite research firms, ChangeWave Research (a 451 Research subsidiary), has finally weighed in on the iPhone 5, along with providing some insights on the “irrelevant” Apple mapping issue. The company has also delivered some interesting insights on how Windows Phone 8 hardware may shape up as smartphones running the new mobile OS start to hit the market. It’s no surprise to us, but the new ChangeWave research – which was conducted in September with a survey panel of 4,270 primarily North American consumers - does confirm that the iPhone 5 has sparked an exceptional wave of buying, with consumers buying them up at record rates.

The research also took a look at the upcoming release of Windows Phone 8, and shows that the new operating system has the potential to make serious inroads in the smartphone industry. Even more interesting to us, the survey claims that Samsung is the manufacturer best positioned to benefit from Windows Phone 8, and by a wide margin.

iPhone 5 Consumer Demand

To gauge overall demand for the latest Apple smartphone model, ChangeWave asked consumers how likely they were to buy one in the future. The survey results, according to ChangeWave, show an unprecedented level of consumer interest. As the chart below shows, when respondents were asked how likely it would be that they would by the iPhone 5 either for themselves or someone else (such as a family member), 19 percent said they were very likely to do so, with 13 percent claiming they were somewhat likely to do so. Taken together this totals up to 32 percent of the respondents checking off the iPhone as a likely purchase.

Taking into consideration that up until the iPhone 5 became available, and dating back to October 2011 when the iPhone 4S – which until now has been the greatest smartphone launch ever, “only” 22.5 percent of respondents (10 percent very likely and 12.5 percent somewhat likely) said they would likely make an iPhone 4S purchase. The numbers don’t lie – the iPhone 5 is a huge success no matter how you slice it.

Apple Lightning Port and Apple Maps Issues

As we and our colleagues have documented elsewhere since the launch, initial media attention surrounding the iPhone 5 and iOS 6 launches focused on two issues that have been seen as disappointing some consumers:

  • The additional cost to consumers caused by Apple’s move to a new Lightning port for iPhone 5 charging and data connections.
  • Problems associated with the new Apple Maps application.

The ChangeWave survey took a close look at consumer reaction to each issue, and what the survey uncovered certainly doesn’t surprise us in the least. The majority of likely buyers, 31 percent, characterized the issue as not much of a problem and a whopping 26 percent claimed it was no problem at all. It is also true that six percent claimed it would be a substantial issue, and 31 percent claimed it was somewhat of a problem. But as ChangeWave specifically points out, when panelists who said they are unlikely to buy the iPhone 5 were asked to state the reason why, zero percent cited the Lightning adapter as an issue.

The new Apple Maps application that replaced the Google Maps app received a large number of sensationalized headlines when the iPhone was first announced. Our own perspective on this, which we’ve covered from several perspectives, suggests rather emphatically that most iPhone 5 users simply have no problem with the new Maps app. It is gratifying to note that the ChangeWave survey found the exact same thing to be true.

Ninety percent of respondents say reported that the issue is no problem at all or they haven’t experienced any problem, while a tiny three percent characterized it as a very big problem and six percent said it was somewhat of a problem. Folks, Apple knew exactly what it was doing – it wanted Google off the iPhone and knew it could make it happen at very little cost up front. Still, as we’ve also noted, users will only give Apple a short pass on this. Apple must get it right soon.

We’ve also pointed out elsewhere the similarities between the Maps App Flap and Antenna Gate, the purported problem iPhone 4 devices were supposed to have with their antennas and cellular reception. Back then there were more sensationalized headlines for a week or so, and then…it was gone as an issue.

ChangeWave was able to put this in context, since the company has the research available dating back to the summer of 2010 to draw comparisons. In that 2010 ChangeWave survey, seven percent of new iPhone 4 owners reported that an antenna/reception issue was a very big problem and 14 percent said it was somewhat of a problem. Sixty-four percent reported they hadn't experienced any problem whatsoever. The chart below draws the very interesting similarities between both issues.

In comparison to the iPhone 4 Antenna/Reception issue, the current Apple Maps issue is clearly of marginal concern to iPhone 5/iOS 6 users. As ChangeWave notes in its report, “Simply put, Apple Maps is not considered a problem by the overwhelming majority of users.” Thank you ChangeWave!

ChangeWave actually took this issue a step further and asked if the Apple Maps issue might be turning off non-Apple users and causing them to avoid the product. Again, the survey data suggests otherwise.

When panelists who said they were unlikely to buy the iPhone 5 were asked why, 61 percent said they were unlikely to buy it because there was no need – their current cell phone was still sufficient. In contrast, an entire zero percent said it was because of reported problems with Apple Maps. That says it all, and in fact it says even more. It is very likely that once these users are in need of acquiring a new smartphone many of them are likely to go the iPhone route.

“Despite the media attention surrounding both the Apple Maps issue and the Apple Lightning port issue, neither has had an impact on the massive numbers of buyers queuing up to buy the iPhone 5,” notes Dr. Paul Carton, ChangeWave's VP of research. “Rather, the survey results clearly show that both issues hardly rank as even bumps in the road.”

Windows Phone 8 and Intent to Purchase

Finally, ChangeWave also surveyed panelists on their interest in the upcoming Windows Phone 8 and the smartphones that are expected to run on them. Manufacturers include Samsung, Nokia and HTC, and all of them will have WP8 smartphones soon after WP8 is released.

To get an early measure of upcoming demand panelists were asked how likely they would be to buy a Windows 8 smart phone. Nine percent (a larger number than perhaps might have been anticipated in our view) said they are likely to buy it in the future (twp percent say it is very likely and seven percent said it was somewhat likely they would do so). The ChangeWave survey also found that integration with Windows Apps/Devices ranks as the top reason why consumers plan on buying a Windows 8 smart phone, with a hefty 36 percent saying this was important to them. Certainly this is a key selling point for WP8.

“Considering marketing has yet to begin, these findings show Windows Phone 8 will likely have a substantial impact on the smart phone industry,” Dr. Carton points out.

Finally, 45 percent of all planned Windows 8 smart phone buyers say they don’t yet know which manufacturer they're going to buy from – that’s not too surprising considering the devices have yet to be released and there is no way to get a real feel for them. Our own money is on the Nokia Lumia 920 here, and we believe it is likely to go head to head with Samsung’s Galaxy S III.

Speaking of Samsung, we’ll close here by noting that of the 55 percent of respondents who claim they do know who they’re likely to buy from, Samsung – with a 51 percent share - is by far the manufacturer best positioned to gain from the upcoming Windows Phone 8 release. We’re not sure we put much stock into this last bit of data – Samsung is likely the go-to phone merely on name recognition. It will certainly be very interesting to see how it all pans out.




Edited by Rachel Ramsey


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