T-Mobile USA Unveils 'Uncarrier' Push Today

Today is the day T-Mobile USA unveils its “uncarrier” remake, shifting to “no contract” service for its entire set of service plans. That might be the biggest of several points T-Mobile USA makes.

But the March 26, 2013 launch also is expected to include the launch of the BlackBerry Z10, and some suggest could also mark the first time T-Mobile USA is allowed to sell the Apple iPhone.

T-Mobile USA might also talk about its Long Term Evolution network.

But the biggest unknown is whether the shift to no-contract service will work out as T-Mobile USA plans. Among the biggest issues is whether consumers really are willing to pay full retail price for their smartphones.

And T-Mobile USA is hedging its bets, by offering installment plans that have the advantage of allowing T-Mobile USA to post lower recurring costs of service for its usage plans, since the installment charges are “separate.”

But it seems likely most consumers will still elect to use some form of subsidy, even if it now is called “an installment plan.”

Will consumers really care if the out of pocket monthly payments for T-Mobile USA service are marginally lower, in the case of services without subsidies but with an installment plan?

If one assumes most consumers still are going to opt for device installment plans rather than buying their devices outright, the savings are relatively slight, on a recurring basis, for purchases involving high-end devices.

T-Mobile USA has a $60-a-month 2.5 gigabyte data plan, which is more than $300 cheaper over two years than an AT&T plan that offers 3 gigabytes and 450 minutes of talk time with the same device. For a user who opts for the installment plan, that works out to about $12.50 a month lower bills than for the rival AT&T plan.

There is an argument that T-Mobile USA plans will save more, compared to service from Verizon Wireless. A user buying that same T-Mobile USA plan, and using the installment plan, would save perhaps $20.83 a month, over two years, compared to a single-user Verizon Wireless plan with 2 gigabytes of data (though the Verizon Wireless plan also would offer unlimited talking and text messaging.)

Still unknown is whether bring your own device trends will get a boost, in addition to a possible shift of end user demand to installment plans or lower-priced devices.

Vodafone has had unpleasant experience with a shift to "no device subsides" in Spain, leading the firm to reverse course.

In the end, the “uncarrier” plan, which aims to brand T-Mobile USA in a different way from other leading U.S. mobile service providers, has to shake up the market, initially by halting the high churn of T-Mobile USA’s best customers.

Though helpful, the real test is whether T-Mobile USA can somehow find a way to start taking market share away from other providers, by offering what it says is “fair and simple.”