Honey, I Shrunk the Octagon

Sometimes technology terms change so quickly that the industry just needs a breather. At Mobile World Congress, for example, the show guide did not mention “Small Cells” – only “Femtocells.”  This will be corrected by next year – and changes are already happening with the renaming of the Femtocell Forum to the Small Cell Forum.

Gordon Mansfield, Chairman of the Small Cell Forum, was recently interviewed for an article by TotalTele's Mary Lennighan, and much of what was said was consistent with a report on the Small Cell Forum website, prepared using Informa Telecom & Media analysis.

The report, expanded to combine femtocells with small cells, states that worldwide small cells represent 10.8 million units, which will grow to 92 million units and worth $22 billion by 2016.

While over 45 of the world's biggest telcos have begun small cells deployments, another 20 have committed to rollouts.

However, many carriers see small cell deployments as difficult and are not ready to change their macro network deployments. 

This is a giant rollout at a time when the carriers have already been doing massive rollouts. But unlike current deployments, the carrier now has to face the fact that new sites must be added. This puts pressure on the backbone to stretch and extend beyond the current towers, and the same for small cells themselves.

To help, the Small Cell Forum is working on a deployment guide.  “The industry needs to drive deployment beyond the big operators,” Mansfield said in the article.  Even if small cells are backhauled by expensive satellite connections, a developed market operator can turn a profit of $50,000 per site, per year, said Mansfield. “If you're in a developing market, that number goes up to $196,000 per site.”

The blend of small cell strategies is explained in the Small Cell Forum guide as they show the opportunities for the various sizing models of cell sites. Bottom line: there are lots of architectures that may make sense based on the existing network, the topology and other factors (such as partners and ordinances).