We Can Expect to See One Billion LTE Connections by 2017

In the U.S. all for major carriers are pushing to get their LTE networks to every part of the nation. Currently, I believe that about 90 percent of the U.S. population has LTE coverage. In Europe a lot of Euros are being spent so that England can also have as much LTE coverage as is possible. Only about 47 percent of Europe has coverage. By the end of 2013 there will be an estimated 176 million LTE connections.

The LTE push is so strong that a recent GSMA Intelligence study predicts that by the year 2017 we will exceed one billion LTE connections. The report is entitled “Global LTE network forecasts and assumptions, 2013-2017.”

GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, delivering the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available. With over 13 million individual data points (updated daily), the service provides coverage of the performance of all 1,140 operators and 1,153 MVNOs across 3,505 networks, 65 groups and 236 countries worldwide.

According to the study, the expectation is that there will be more than eight billion total mobile connections by the end of 2017. Of those billions, about an eighth will be LTE connections. That will make the bottom line number over one billion LTE connections. This is because the forecast sees close to 500 LTE networks in service encompassing 128 countries. This comes to just about double what we have now.

Hyunmi Yang, chief strategy officer at the GSMA, said, “Since the launch of the first commercial 4G-LTE networks in late 2009 we are seeing deployments accelerate across the globe. Our new report highlights a number of factors that are driving LTE growth: the timely allocation of suitable spectrum to mobile operators; the availability of affordable LTE devices; and the implementation of innovative tariffs that encourage adoption of high-speed data services. Mobile operators in both developed and developing markets are seeing LTE services contributing to a significant increase in ARPU."

If you combine the U.S., South Korea and Japan, you will see that together they make up about 80 percent of the total LTE connections today. The U.S. leads the way with about 46 percent of global LTE connections.

If the numbers hold out, by 2017, Asia should have just about half of all LTE connections with a 47 percent share. This will come about as LTE networks are rolled out in China and India. While it is true that the U.S. has the largest percentage, a further breakdown shows that the U.S. and Japan have about 20 percent of their connections running on LTE networks and South Korea leads the way with almost half of their connections running on LTE networks.

Yang went on to say, "Our findings show that the global LTE market is at a 'tipping point.' In 'Digital Pioneer' markets such as the United States, South Korea and Japan, the migration to LTE networks is well advanced and operators are seeing increases in subscriber engagement and ARPU as a result. We are now seeing other markets make the move to LTE in greater numbers and the double-digit annual growth in global LTE connections forecast between 2013-2017 will see many more consumers around the world engage with high-speed mobile networks."

Some of the other findings of the study are as follows:

In most cases, the migration to 4G-LTE is happening considerably faster than the earlier migration from 2G to 3G

LTE users consume 1.5GB of data per month on average2 - almost twice the average amount consumed by non-LTE users

In developing economies, operators have noted that LTE users can generate ARPU seven to 20 times greater than non-LTE users. In developed markets, operators have found that LTE can generate an ARPU uplift ranging from 10 per cent to 40 per cent

Four out of five mobile operators that have acquired 'new' spectrum since January 2010 have been allocated airwaves aimed at supporting the launch of LTE networks

LTE networks worldwide have been deployed in 12 different frequency bands to date; four out of five live LTE networks today are deployed in one of four bands: 700MHz, 800MHz, 1800MHz or 2600MHz

The average retail price (before discounts and subsidies) of LTE smartphones in developed markets such as the US has remained unchanged at around US $450 for the last few years

Handset subsidies have contributed considerably to the increase in LTE penetration over the last two years, but operators have also become more innovative in their pricing