Will Mobile Data Growth Rates Slow?

Internet traffic estimates have in the past been overstated. In the Internet bubble at the turn of the century, estimates were overblown by orders of magnitude, in some cases.

Some even believe estimates of growth rates for mobile Internet access are likewise inflated.

“While mobile data traffic might be growing fast last year and this year, there are all kinds of reasons why in Western Europe and developed markets it won’t be growing as fast going forward,” said Rupert Wood, Analysys Mason principal analyst.

In large part, that forecast hinges on the notion that later adopters will not use mobile data as intensively, a reasonable enough expectation. “The next 30 to 40 percent who want a smartphone but don’t currently have one are not going to be the heavy users of data that the first round of users are,” said Wood. “New users will dilute the growth rate quite a lot.”

Some might argue that later adopters will spend less for one simple reason: they are users who have the least need for mobile data.

But there is one reason why data consumption might well stay on its present course: video entertainment. As one might have argued “not everybody uses or needs access to the Internet, or uses a computer,” one might argue that “everybody” consumes entertainment video.

At least potentially, that means later adopters might consume just about as much data as early adopters, because it is video that drives data consumption, not use of the Internet for work, or web browsing or email.

Wood argues declining use of text messaging will have a measurable impact on data consumption, but that is unlikely. Text messaging simply doesn’t consume enough bandwidth, one way or the other, to make a difference in overall data volume.

But there are multiple forces and trends at work. Data offload to fixed Wi-Fi connections is one such trend. Analysys Mason itself estimates that about 73 percent of global handset and

tablet data was generated in the home or place of work in 2012.

Excluding Wi-Fi-only devices, 65 percent of all data consumed by end users employed a Wi-Fi connection, Wood argues.

If so, it might be reasonable to expect much of the increased video consumption to occur over local Wi-Fi connections, not the mobile network. Even conservative forecasts already show that a clear majority of mobile data traffic is offloaded.

The point is that it is very hard to predict just how fast mobile data consumption will change in the near future.