No Room for a Third Major Mobile Operating System?

Market share might not be “everything” in the mobile handset business, but it is among the most important indicators of success. In that regard, Android now represents, Canalys says, 79 percent share (785 million) of the devices shipped in 2013, up from 68 percent share in 2012.

Conversely, Apple’s iOS share fell from 20 percent to 15 percent, despite shipments increasing to 154 million.

Microsoft saw a percentage point share rise to three percent, up 90 percent in 2013 to 32.1 million, driven by Nokia’s Lumia devices, ahead of BlackBerry, at 19.8 million, Canalys says.

Some 292.8 million smartphones shipped in the fourth quarter of 2013. Apple actually gained market share in the fourth quarter, up from 13 percent in the third quarter, to 17 percent in the fourth quarter.

Samsung market share was flat at 29 percent, but down from 34 percent sequentially. The Windows Phone operating system saw the fastest year-over-year growth among the major platforms, at 69 percent, despite a modest sequential decline of six percent growth from the third quarter of  2013.

Of course, things could keep changing. The sale of Motorola Mobility to Lenovo, and a recent broad licensing deal between Samsung and Google means Samsung likely will implement Android in ways that reduce fragmentation across the Android user base.

BlackBerry’s declining share and Nokia’s rising share will be reflected in market share indices. But all the others have some ways to go, as Android remains so dominant globally, and Apple retains a firm, albeit limited position in its higher-end niche.

Most mobile operating systems other than Android and iOS barely register. According to Statista, in the third quarter of 2013, Research in Motion had less than two percent global share, Bada had share of about 0.3 percent share and Symbian had share of about 0.2 percent.

Those daunting statistics are one reason why NTT Docomo recently declined to add Samsung’s Tizen to its roster of supported devices. Docomo’s frank assessment is that there is not room in the market for a third major operating system, to say nothing of a fourth or fifth provider.