Here is yet another Ford family anecdote. After a particularly frustrating week talking to the FCC, my father came home from shopping at the Giant Food Store, where he had noticed FCC Chairman Fowler buying a chicken. My father thought about going in the back and buying the entrails from that bird, but opted not to as he was well aware of just how difficult it was to find a Soothsayer in those days. These days, though, divining the future is more complicated, what with companies, courts, Congress and the commission conspiring to confuse the seekers and seers of the future.
Today I am trying to get my arms around what happened this past weekend, what with Netflix and Comcast making peace. Did Net Neutrality get a eulogy out of the peering relationship? Did Comcast avoid being cast in the pit with Verizon in time to save its bid for Time Warner? Comcast being a content operator, does the agreement mean that Netflix set a marketing precedent that Comcast can use in dealing with its rivals ATT and Verizon? Does it all serve to concede that Europe is right to have carriers and content operators peering together?
Image via Shutterstock
So this is where I put on my robes and rings and offer up my Telecom Tarot reading:
The Hanged Man
As a result of the merger, Time Warner hangs suspended with the hope of new opportunity. The company, which at one point led the cable operators with Road Runner and better interactive services, will become yet another channel guide in the family of Comcast.
The Wheel of Fortune
Comcast is often set separately from the other cable operators with the expression “Comcast and the Seven Dwarfs.” With the purchase of Time Warner, however, the dwarfs are dwindling and are now more importantly seen as a big picture. The question that must be asked is whether Comcast is determining its own fate, or are they casting about without a destination in mind? The company’s purchase of NBC/Universal; partnership with Verizon Wireless (at the expense of Time Warner and other partners); acquisition of Time Warner; and now the deal with Netflix, all seem to represent turns of the Wheel rather than actual strategy. Can a cohesive strategy be found? Perhaps, but a reversal of fortune is a possibility, too, as the deals divide the thinking. As the largest cable operator, nonetheless, and one of the biggest content producers, Comcast can play both ends against the middle when it comes to peering traffic.
The Magician
Netflix has used its powers to develop something different: a Content delivery service without direct access to the customer. The deal with Comcast reveals that sleight of hand is not much of a trick. Over the top needs direct access, and for all the talk of being a peer the traffic is one way of getting it.
The Hierophant
Of course, the Hierophant (A hierophant is an interpreter of sacred mysteries and arcane principle) is the FCC. The Commission continues to try to find relevance in the orthodoxy of Net Neutrality, although all carriers are moving beyond the goal. All carriers with the exception of AT&T, that is, which is treated by the Five of Wands (Advocacy Groups) as if they are the Emperor (whereas to me they look like the Knight of Wands).
At the end of my laying of the cards, I find that the interpretation is very much in the hands of the viewer. And though you may want to reshuffle the deck, I will warn you that seeing the future is not nearly the same as changing it.
Edited by
Rory J. Thompson
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