Feature Article

January 28, 2009

Researchers: LTE to Exceed 1 Million Subscribers in 2018

By Michael Dinan
A 4G technology that’s made headlines in recent weeks received another endorsement today from a Bethesda, Maryland-based IT and telecommunications research firm.
 
As MobilityTechzone’s Greg Galitzine said in his blog, long-term evolution, or “LTE” deployment plans from Verizon have moved up to this year from 2010, and 18 operators recently announced LTE rollout plans – a positive sign for the technology.
 
Now, Dittberner Associates Inc. says it expects that LTE adoption will be slow, yet pervasive and inexorable.
 
According to James Health, the firm’s director of broadband research, LTE’s important feature is that it standardizes a single architecture to allow interworking between fixed IP networks, Wi-Fi, WiMax, GSM/WCDMA and CDMA/EV-DO networks.
 
“This holds out the promise that there will be a single converged network capable of seamless service to all subscribers, mobile and fixed,” Heath said.
 
It isn’t clear how quickly legacy networks will be replaced, but Dittberner is calling for the number of total subscribers to exceed 1 billion by 2018:
 
 
The data backs up what other research firms say.
 
As MobilityTechzone reported, officials at ABI Research say that Verizon already has announced acceleration of its LTE deployment timetable, bringing the launch forward from 2010 to 2009, and that others are looking at 2011 or 2012 – a time by which, hopefully, much of this economic crisis will have passed.
 
According to ABI Senior Analyst Nadine Manjaro, the firm believes that NTT will also deploy LTE in Japan in 2009.
 
“We forecast that by 2013 operators will spend over $8.6 billion on LTE base station infrastructure alone,” Manjaro said. “For operators that have already deployed 3G networks, LTE will be a key CAPEX driver over the next five years.”
  
One France-based telecommunications consortium recently announced that it’s solidified specifications for a project designed to improve the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System standard for mobile phone.
 
Officials represented by the Third Generation Partnership Project, or “3GPP,” say they’ve approved a functional freeze of LTE, as part of Release 8, marking a major step forward in bringing the next-generation wireless broadband technology to market.
 
“There is significant commitment from operators to deploy this technology, and this landmark achievement will allow them to realize their early deployment plans,” 3GPP officials say. “LTE is aimed at providing the true global mobile broadband experience for users but also places high priority on improving spectral efficiency and reducing cost.”
 
3GPP – a collaboration of European telecom groups – say there’s a “significant commitment” from operators to deploy the technology, and that “this landmark achievement will allow them to realize their early deployment plans.”
 
“LTE is aimed at providing the true global mobile broadband experience for users but also places high priority on improving spectral efficiency and reducing cost,” officials say.
 
According to Dittberner, LTE deployments also will launched by NTT DoCoMo in 2009, but will take five or six years to become common because service providers can’t afford launching another technology. Even so, LTE subscriber growth is expected to be faster than existing 3G growth, which has only reached 300 million subscribers, eight years after its initial launch.
 
As the firm indicates, costs is somewhat prohibitive.
 
The radio network total cost of $377 Billion is $275 per subscriber – a little lower than existing 3G costs, because LTE equipment will reuse much of the existing infrastructure.
 
“Many Base Station suppliers are already shipping equipment which can be easily adapted to LTE operation with minimal equipment changes and installation costs,” the firm says. “Many of the existing 3G networks will also have their backhaul bandwidth upgraded before the LTE deployments begin in earnest. The new backhaul cost is just to augment the 3G backhaul that will already be in place. The LTE core network will also increase the sale of Carrier Ethernet switches and IP Routers by $8 billion annually in 2019.”
 
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Michael Dinan is a contributing editor for MobilityTechzone, covering news in the IP communications, call center and customer relationship management industries. To read more of Michael's articles, please visit his columnist page.

Edited by Michael Dinan

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