3G/4G Will Be Popular By 2013, According to In-Stat Report

In-Stat has predicted that 3G and Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) technologies will account for more than 30 percent of all subscriptions across the globe by 2013, a significant increase compared with 11 percent in 2008.

The primary reason attributed to this projection is the number of Wi-B infrastructural contracts handed out to several companies and nature of deployments made in the fourth quarter of 2008 (Q408).

Of the 132 deployments made during this period 95 approximately 72 percent were for High Speed Packet Access (HS PA), which is a technology that improves the throughput for HS Downlink PA to 14.4 Mega bits per second (Mbps) and HS Uplink PA to 5.8Mbps, and is the 3GPP standard for an enhanced Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UTMS) information exchange interface.

Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (W-CDMA) accounted for 18 of the remaining 37 deployments. WCDMA is a high speed multi-code data transmission set of rules that uses a pair of 5 MHz bandwidth radio channels and its multiple user coverage can be increased by using smart antennas.

Limited usage restricted CDMA EVolution Data Only (EV-DO) to just six deployments. CDMA EV-DO principally transmits data and needs to support an extra 1.25 MHz radio channel when voice transmissions are required.

The data indicated a marked reduction in W-CDMA and CDMA EV-DO equipment contracts.

There was only one deployment, allegedly in China, of Time Division-Synchronous CDMA, which is a technology that uses synchronous spread spectrum across numerous time slots.

In-Stat says WiMAX, with 12 deployments in Q408, appears to be holding on but will face serious competition due to the rise of HSPA and LTE in developed nations. This prediction is also reinforced by a Maravedis study that was reported by TMC about six weeks ago. In-Stat adds that WiMAX may hold its ground in developing countries and other remote locations where wired broadband networks have still not been commissioned.

“Based on contract awards, WiMAX deployments are remaining resilient in the face of the economic slowdown, although some operators are slowing the deployment rate,” said Daryl Schoolar, an In-Stat analyst. “The WiMAX equipment heavyweights of Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola and Samsung are benefiting from the trend. Other vendors to watch include Cisco, Huawei and ZTE.”