Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) has been creating a visionary picture of the way networks, services and applications will look around 2015 and considering the likely impact on the role of Communication Service Providers. (CSPs). The result is a wake-up call to a very challenging future.

Starting in 2Q 2008, NSN produced a series of white papers that examined the way the communications landscape might look in 2015 (see “4G Wireless Evolution - Networks in 2015: A Vision and a Strategy”). If you go there be sure to read the last part on “Smart Connectivity.”

A year on and that vision/strategy has evolved into an ambitious concept called the “Network of One.” It paints a very big picture that NSN has put into six categories: (1) one simplified network; (2) one convergent service control; (3) one view of customer data; (4) one flexible service enablement; (5) unified management and charging system; and finally (6), one business-optimized operation.

The “one” theme gets a bit tedious after a while, but when one considers the size and complexity of the communications landscape it helps to have a theme, a red line that runs throughout the concept. In other words, when going into detail in one category it is good to be reminded that it’s part of that bigger picture.

Formidable Challenges

The concept in itself represents a formidable, wide-ranging challenge, but let’s start by zeroing in on some pertinent facts: The Internet will be the primary host of applications and services. Currently 1.7 billion people use the Net. Trillions of ‘things’ will employ it in future and in both cases access will be mainly wireless. This will generate hundreds of Exabytes (1018) of content, resulting in almost a Zettabyte (1021) of traffic flowing through telecom networks every year. Therefore we have a classical case of opportunities and challenges. The market for the applications and services will be massive, but the challenges will put a significant strain on the success and profitability of the CSPs and without a very clear roadmap such as that of NSN their networks will become nothing more than fat bit pipes.

Changing the Mindset

It will be hard for CSPs to accept the pivotal role of the Internet, a corollary of which will be the change from service provider to a service enabler (cat 4). CSPs can’t fight the Net; moreover their track record on the service creation front has been pretty miserable. (See sidebar “Davids versus Goliaths” below). Yesterday’s model isn’t working so something has to give.

CSPs will obviously continue to provide baseline connectivity services. The added value will come by leveraging their core assets. These include customer data, the location of mobile users, messaging and call control, and billing mechanisms. The new business model will therefore be one of value-added connectivity.

Once mindsets change and CSPs start to leverage the value of these assets then they should be able to realize a sustainable, profitable position in the new services ecosystem and thereby avoid the fat pipe scenario.

Business-optimized Operation

Business-optimized operation is the last category but in many ways it is the most important. It covers the steps that need to be taken in order to facilitate the new services ecosystem. For example, vendors are increasingly handling the introduction of new technologies. They build, operate and transfer the solutions. This development reduces risk, increases speed and improves operational performance.  In addition many CSPs are outsourcing their network operation in order to improve operational efficiency.

These developments allow CSPs to focus on service enablement. Staying ahead of the technology curve and enabling the efficient delivery of new services is the foundation on which partnerships with the development community can be build. In addition, it is the optimum way to leverage the core assets referred to in the previous section.

Simplified Networks

The dramatic increase in traffic — x100 by 2015 — will come from mobile multimedia and fixed IP-HDTV as well as the new breed of intelligent mobile devices and a plethora of innovative applications.  However, there are also two significant issues.

One, investments in new technologies such as optical access and mobile access, e.g. LTE, are needed to handle the traffic and this will, in the near term, make networks more complex and therefore more expensive to run.

And two, although revenues will increase, they will not reflect the growth in traffic -- i.e. they will be well behind the curve. Revenue growth will only come by reducing complexity and by making networks more efficient. In other words, capacity increases have to be decoupled from cost increases.

Network efficiency will come via a flat, all-IP core architecture in which there are less components, i.e. no more silo solutions and minimal functional redundancy. Easy to say, but hard to realize. In addition, the number of elements in the mobile data path needs to be reduced. This will come by adopting the I-HSPA and LTE/SAE flat architecture.

The goal is to realize ubiquitous broadband IP, which in turn will lead to much better user experiences.

IMS Enters the Picture

IMS entered the telecoms picture in 2002 and along the way its objectives have shifted, e.g. from being a pure wireless concept to a form of fixed mobile convergence. That development increased the complexity and that slowed down meaningful deployments, i.e. deployments that are delivering commercial services to a mass market. Whatever vendors and operators might say, they’re still thin on the ground.

Back in February 2005 I wrote these words: “A key feature (of IMS) is the use of common components, which eliminates the need to reinvent the wheel every time a new service is created. Thus, no more communication island solutions: no more service silos. Instead, operators can create a dynamic service environment via the ability to introduce new services, quickly and economically, on a regular basis.”

It didn’t happen. Four and a half years later NSN are saying the same thing about the functionality but now IMS is being positioned as the target architecture for service control in both mobile and fixed broadband networks.

Migration Scenarios

CSPs are obviously not going to make forklift upgrades to their networks; instead they will look for smooth, evolutionary paths towards that target architecture in order to protect legacy investments. For example, mobile voice will continue to be circuit-switched for several years but VoIP is the end game. Therefore CSoHSPA (Circuit Switched over HSPA – dreadful acronym) is an attractive intermediate solution.

At the moment LTE is being hyped to the hilt and there has been a lot of coverage about the fact that an air interface designed to deliver high-speed data doesn’t do SMS and voice. The 3GPP preferred solution for voice in LTE is to use IMS in the core network. NSN is proposing an intermediary solution called Fast Track Voice over LTE. NSN says that the company’s mobile softswitch has a SIP signaling capability and the Fast track software update will allow the switch to handle VoIP traffic in LTE networks. And when IMS is deployed, the solution will continue to work in the same way, i.e. as part of IMS.

Conclusions

Creating a vision that takes in virtually every aspect of networking isn’t easy and it’s hard to distill the technologies and the messages into a structured roadmap. It’s also hard to avoid using clichés like “putting the customer in the center” and “holistically transform business models, infrastructure and operations to enable the individual communications experience in an efficient way.”

NSN does fall into that trap at times, but the roadmap is clearly defined and no punches are pulled when it comes to changing the CSPs’ mindset.  Unless that takes place all the technology in the world isn’t going to produce the requisite results. That was a powerful, take-home message.

Maybe IMS will be in place by 2015 and maybe it will be delivering the functionality that has been on offer for an embarrassing long time. It would have been easy to duck the hard convergence issues and base the Network of One concept on that proposition. Instead, NSN positions IMS as a target architecture and proposes evolutionary approaches such as CSoHSPA and Fast Track Voice over LTE.

Davids versus Goliaths

(This is a personal aside.

My value-added services requirements were simple. I wanted a high-quality VoIP service – an alternative to Skype (News - Alert) – and a way of recording interviews. I found them on the site of Voipfone, a small SP (10 staff) based in the UK. Now I have a snom phone on my desk and if I don’t answer it after a few rings the call is transferred to my mobile. That is FMC.

I can’t get these services from my Goliath Dutch wireline and wireless operators.

If I was running a small business I could get a virtual PBX (News - Alert) service having an almost unlimited number of telephone extensions and call queuing functionality. That is Centrex.

Moreover these phones would also do FMC. And I could even add a virtual switchboard IVR.

There are other services; check them out at www.voipfone.co.uk.

The point I’m spelling out here is the fact that the Davids of the VoIP/Internet space are streets ahead of the Goliaths. Why? The operators have massive resources, technical and financial. What they lack is an understanding of the marketplace.

Tough words. Yes, but think for a moment about those retail outlets in high streets and shopping malls. What do they sell? Devices and usage plans. The opportunities for upselling would be huge if the services were there.)